Awards season has always been something close to madness – the closest thing film lovers have to a sports playoff, a relentless gauntlet of splits, dark horse contenders, and last-minute momentum shifts that build toward the Academy Awards as our Super Bowl. But 2026 has elevated the chaos to operatic heights, turning the road to Oscars night into a spectator sport that rivals the ceremony itself.
This year’s race feels like one of the most wonderfully alive in recent memory. Jessie Buckley for ‘Hamnet’ stands as the only bona fide lock – every other acting category has become genuinely anyone’s game. There’s a certain thrill in watching one nominee steamroll an entire season, but there’s a different, rawer electricity in years like this one, where early trophies scatter across a worthy field and every major result seems to change everything we thought we knew.
With the Actor Awards – the final stop before the main event – now wrapped, three things have come into clear focus: it would take a generational upset to unseat Buckley, the Best Actor race has cracked wide open, and ‘Sinners’ has established itself as a real threat to ‘One Battle After Another’ for Best Picture. In what promises to be a true nail-biter, here are my final predictions ahead of the Academy Awards.
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Best Picture: ‘One Battle After Another’
Wild cards can never be ruled out on Oscars night, but this has become a two-horse race. ‘Sinners’ is riding its highest wave yet – buoyed by the Outstanding Cast win at the Actor Awards – but I still believe ‘One Battle After Another’ is primed for the top prize. Several factors continue to work against a ‘Sinners’ upset: genre bias, the deep industry affection for OBAA’s cast and crew, and a precursor haul that includes the BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, DGA, PGA, and more. The door is open – but OBAA’s foot is firmly in it.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (‘One Battle After Another’)
Ryan Coogler is enjoying a late surge of force for ‘Sinners,’ but Paul Thomas Anderson still looks like the steadiest bet for Best Director. Both films have traded blows throughout the season as this year’s dominant Best Picture contenders, but what ultimately cinches it for me is PTA’s compelling overdue narrative – the kind of Academy storyline that has historically proven powerful enough to pull off upsets on the night itself.
Best Actor In A Leading Role: Michael B. Jordan (‘Sinners’)
Before the Actor Awards, Timothée Chalamet was my pick. Now I’m jumping ship. The voting overlap between the Actor Awards and the Academy’s acting categories is well established, and I’ve learned not to underestimate what those wins signal – years ago, Jamie Lee Curtis’ sole major precursor win for ‘Everything Everywhere All At Once’ was an Actor Award, and she went on to take the Oscar. Michael B. Jordan’s win drew an electric reaction from the crowd, and crucially, Oscar voting didn’t close until after that ceremony. While Chalamet remains the stronger pick on paper, I’m increasingly sensing that Academy voters may be more than happy to see MBJ take the stage on Sunday night.
Best Actress In A Leading Role: Jessie Buckley (‘Hamnet’)
Jessie Buckley has done something no actress in this category has managed since 2019 – swept every major precursor award in the lead-up to the Oscars. At this point, her win for ‘Hamnet’ feels less like a prediction and more like a formality. A sweep of this magnitude has never been overturned, and while a Rose Byrne upset for ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’ would make for a thrilling evening, Buckley’s name is essentially already engraved on the award.
Best Actor In A Supporting Role: Sean Penn (‘One Battle After Another’)
Supporting Actor may be the night’s most unpredictable category. With major precursor awards split across the nominees, I’ve found myself running through several scenarios. It’s rare for a Best Picture frontrunner to be completely shut out of the acting categories, and while I spent much of awards season expecting Teyana Taylor to be OBAA’s acting representative, Sean Penn now looks like the stronger bet – backed by both the BAFTA and the Actor Award. Two factors give me pause, however: his well-documented ambivalence toward these ceremonies, having not shown up to collect either win, and the fact that he already has two Oscars at home. Stellan Skarsgård’s brief surge has since cooled, but Delroy Lindo’s late groundswell of support ahead of voting closing could yet push him over the line. For now, I’m settling on Penn – with Lindo as my pivot if Michael B. Jordan falls short in Best Actor.
Best Actress In A Supporting Role: Amy Madigan (‘Weapons’)
Supporting Actress is where things get genuinely tricky. If Penn loses Supporting Actor, I could see momentum shifting toward the charismatic Teyana Taylor for OBAA. If the love for Sinners follows BAFTA’s lead, Wunmi Mosaku becomes a real contender. In almost every other scenario, though, I’m leaning toward Amy Madigan for ‘Weapons.’ Being a film’s sole nomination typically works against a candidate when up against the behemoths of ‘OBAA’ and ‘Sinners’ – but Madigan has edged ahead for me following her Actor Award win. I never underestimate those, and I sense she carries more goodwill with voters than her fellow nominees. The one caveat: the Academy’s historical aversion to horror may not be entirely behind us.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay): ‘Sinners’
With the Golden Globes being the sole exception – combining Original and Adapted into a single category – nearly every major awards body this season has landed on ‘Sinners’ for Original Screenplay and ‘One Battle After Another’ for Adapted. There’s little reason to expect the Oscars to break the pattern.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): ‘One Battle After Another’
See above.
Best Animated Feature Film: ‘KPop Demon Hunters’
Having swept all 10 of its Annie Awards nominations – animation’s equivalent of the Oscars – and claimed virtually every major Best Animated Film prize this season, ‘Kpop Demon Hunters’ arrives at the Academy Awards as the clear frontrunner in its category.
Best International Feature Film: ‘Sentimental Value’ (Norway)
After some deliberation – and a fair amount of debate over the sway of Brazilian voters – I’m landing on ‘Sentimental Value’ for International Film. With nine nominations including directing and four acting nods, it’s one of the night’s most celebrated films. It’s too strong a film to leave empty-handed, and I’m not ready to bet against it.
Best Documentary Feature Film: ‘The Perfect Neighbor’
Although ‘Mr Nobody Against Putin’ took Best Documentary at the BAFTAs, the Critics’ Choice win for ‘The Perfect Neighbor’ carries more weight for me – and I’m going with the heart-wrenching police bodycam documentary as my Oscar pick.
Best Music (Original Score): ‘Sinners’
After watching Ludwig Göransson sweep the Original Score category throughout this awards season, a surprise feels unlikely at this point. A win here would also mark his second collaboration with director Ryan Coogler to take the Oscar – having previously won for ‘Black Panther’ – as well as his third Academy Award overall, following ‘Oppenheimer.’
Best Music (Original Song): ‘Golden’ – ‘Kpop Demon Hunters’
With the Oscars’ producers making the controversial call to perform only ‘Golden’ from ‘Kpop Demon Hunters’ and ‘I Lied To You’ from ‘Sinners’ during the ceremony, Best Original Song has effectively become a two-horse race. The ‘Sinners’ wave could carry it further down the ballot, but ‘Golden’ remains my tentative pick – particularly given its track record against ‘I Lied To You’ in every head-to-head so far.
Best Casting: ‘Sinners’
The first new category in 25 years! With the Outstanding Cast Actor Award and the Critics’ Choice Best Casting award already under its belt, ‘Sinners’ looks well positioned to take this inaugural prize – and casting director Francine Maisler seems the confident frontrunner, particularly if the film falls short in the Best Picture race.
Best Sound: ‘F1’
Much like director Joseph Kosinski’s ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ before it, ‘F1’ is essentially a film engineered to win Best Sound.
Best Cinematography: ‘One Battle After Another’
While ‘Train Dreams’ and ‘Sinners’ both made a strong showing this awards season, ‘One Battle After Another’ cinematographer Michael Bauman has built too comfortable a lead at this point to be overtaken on Oscars night.
Best Production Design/Best Makeup & Hairstyling/Best Costume Design: ‘Frankenstein’
These three awards feel like a natural bundle, and I’d put my money on Guillermo del Toro’s ‘Frankenstein’ to sweep all of them. One of the biggest craft darlings of the season – celebrated for its practical designs and creative choices – the film’s team has already claimed this same trio at the BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice.
Best Film Editing: ‘One Battle After Another’
Other films may have picked up one-off wins this awards season, but the path to Best Film Editing looks firmly paved for ‘OBAA’ editor Andy Jurgensen.
Best Visual Effects: ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’
The Academy has long had a soft spot for James Cameron’s ‘Avatar’ franchise, and ‘Fire and Ash’ looks set to continue that tradition – betting against it for Best Visual Effects, a category both previous films won with ease, would be a fool’s errand.
Born in Korea and raised in Hong Kong, Min Ji has combined her degree in anthropology and creative writing with her passion for going on unsolicited tangents as an editor at Friday Club. In between watching an endless amount of movies, she enjoys trying new cocktails and pastas while occasionally snapping a few pictures.
